Supply: China's electrolytic aluminum production in October was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year and continued to decrease year-on-year. From January to October, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 32.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. This week, Shandong Yantai issued a policy to reduce production by about 200,000 tons of dual control, accounting for more than 2% of Shandong’s production capacity, which has little effect on the proportion. However, if others follow suit, they may have a certain impact. Continue to pay attention.
Demand: This week, the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased steadily, with the average operating rate rising by 0.1 percentage point to 66.7%. The environmental-related news that disturbed the northern market last week did not have a major impact on the aluminum processing industry this week.

Inventory: According to SMM's statistics, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.002 million tons, and the weekly inventory was reduced by 15,000 tons. Major consumption areas such as Nanhai, Shanghai, and Wuxi contributed mainly to the inventory, and the Gongyi area had accumulated inventory.
Profit: Alumina prices continued to fall in November, and costs fell, and aluminum ingot profits remained at around cost. This week, aluminum profit fell to around 1,000 yuan along with alumina.
Macro: Powell keeps claiming to "cut down" and raise interest rates in advance, and the macro policies tend to be negative.
Strategy: Supply is still tight under the influence of dual control. The operating rate of leading downstream processing companies has remained stable overall. After getting rid of the impact of the previous deadline, the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry is mainly affected by downstream consumers. The short-term inventory inflection point is uncertain, and the 20,000 mark has not been broken. The aluminum price trend is expected to be strong outside and weak inside. It will remain volatile, and stocks will be prepared on demand.