Limited rebound space for aluminum oxide price

The process of putting electrolytic aluminum into production or speeding up

Accumulate or lower than expected during the Spring Festival

Viewpoint:

(1) in the short cycle, considering that the Spring Festival this year is nearly a month ahead of last year, it is estimated that the cumulative storage volume around the Spring Festival is about 370000 tons. Although the level in the same period last year, the cumulative storage range is not the lowest in history, so it may be difficult for aluminum prices to rise unilaterally. In view of the fact that the active fiscal policy in 2020 should vigorously improve quality and efficiency, the fiscal deficit rate may be appropriately raised, and the amount of local special debt may be raised to 3 trillion yuan, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to pick up, especially in the central and western regions. Actual aluminum consumption is still within reach, and the accumulated stock during the Spring Festival may still be lower than previously expected, and has a strong phased upward driving force for aluminum prices.

(2) in the medium term, if Weiqiao is converted to Yunnan in the second quarter of 2020 as planned, the dismantling process will have a greater impact on aluminum production, and even change the balance of aluminum supply and demand throughout the year. Therefore, if the marginal warming of the demand end or the dismantling process of Weiqiao in the early stage of production in Yunnan and the instability of Yunnan electric power have a strong upward driving force on aluminum prices, We estimate that aluminum prices in the first half of the year may break through the volatility range of aluminum prices in 2019 and rise to 15000 yuan / ton, while with prices rising, production capacity release expectations in the second half of the year are still large, aluminum plants may speed up production under huge profits, and increase short preservation efforts, distant monthly supply expectations may once again put pressure on aluminum prices, and squeeze industry smelting profits.