9. 17 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: yesterday Lun aluminum was blocked, high to $1818.5 and then fell to close at $1787.5 / ton, down $25.50 / ton, down 1.41%; overnight Shanghai aluminum main force 1911 contract night trading fell 15 yuan / ton, down 0.11%. Macro: yesterday, the macro economy sent a weak signal, with China's industrial production above August up 4.4% from a year earlier, with an expected 5.4%, up from 4.8%. Overseas: the New York Fed manufacturing index in September was 2, expected 4, and the previous value was 4.8. The British prime minister said he would lead Brexit by the end of October, whether or not an agreement was reached. In addition, near the Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision, pay attention to the trend of the dollar. Fundamentals: 1) inventory and out of stock: yesterday SMM statistics the national mainstream consumer aluminum ingot inventory slightly increased by 6000 tons to 978000 tons, mainly due to the Mid-Autumn Festival out of the warehouse decline, aluminum ingot out of the stock fell by 1500 tons per week, and aluminum bar out of the stock fell by 3200 tons per week. 2) Consumer side: some traders reflect that the demand for aluminum bars in northern China has obviously weakened. SMM judgment is related to the decline of operating rate of profile factories in Henan, Hebei and Inner Mongolia affected by environmental protection. Guangdong profile factories are more optimistic about production in September / October. 3) because the recovery of the supply side was not as expected, alumina rebounded slightly in the short term, and the average price of SMM alumina was raised by 22 yuan / ton to 2569 yuan / ton yesterday.

Spot: yesterday morning market quotation chaos, Shanghai Wuxi market transaction price between 14370-14380 yuan / ton, and then concentrated in 14390-14410 yuan / ton, the spot price fell back nearly 120 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday. Due to the opening of aluminum down, the superimposed disk back structure price difference fluctuates greatly, the holder shipment is slightly hesitant, although the middleman receives the goods actively, the buyer and seller close the deadlock. A large purchase volume today is not much, and downstream is also more wait-and-see, basically go on demand, a small amount of replenishment. Summary: the current short force is the participation of internal and external full sets of funds driven by logistics logic, the second is the expectation of rising supply pressure in the far month, thus squeezing the profits of the industry, the third is the participation of some aluminum plants, suggesting that the long participation should be reduced, the support level can rebound to fight for short-term gains, the trend short can try the layout of light warehouses in the far month (1912-2001), and the Back structure will continue to be maintained. The internal and external positive sleeve risk comes from the continued weak demand abroad and the decline in aluminum exports is not as expected.