Analysis of the aluminum industry chain in China: long-term development of space short-term capacity pressure

2017-01-16

The aluminum industry chain the bauxite to make aluminum, and then processed into a variety of aluminum industry chain, including alumina refining, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum products processing the three links.

Of the world's reserves of bauxite-rich, mainly concentrated in the countries closest to the equator. China's reserves accounted for 3% of the world, and the poor quality, but the distribution is highly concentrated in Guangxi, Henan, Shanxi and Guizhouprovince as a whole has more than 90% per cent. Although the reserves are not rich,but higher bauxite production to meet more than half of the domestic demand foralumina, namely 25% 3% reserves and production to meet the global alumina production yield. Even so, we nearly half still need imports of bauxite. However, taking intoaccount the global reserves of bauxite, mining easy layout also has some bauxiteoverseas of domestic enterprises, we believe that the future for a long period of time it is difficult to see bauxite is constrained by the situation.

China's electrolytic aluminum output in the world, accounted for more than 50%, and import and export are small scale. Capacity in terms of geographical distribution are highly concentrated, Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Gansu and Qinghai in 6 provinces totals close to 80% of the total national production. However, the trend over the past years, Northwest and other

inland provinces, benefiting from low prices from abundant coal resources, rapid expansion of production scale, and Henan than the sharp drop in absolute amount must also appear on the slide.

Aluminum terminals and raw materials mainly include construction, delivery, powerelectronics,

consumer durables, machinery and equipment industries, accounts for, respectively, 14%, 39%, 17%, 7%. Aluminum not only meet domestic consumption in China, but also are exported,2015 total to 4.1952 million tons, accounting for 8% of domestic production.With the upgrading of manufacturing industry in China, high-end broad prospects for the development of deep processing of aluminum.

Overall, the higher degree of integration leading aluminum industry chain in China."Coal-electric-aluminum" integrated layout is the leading aluminium enterprise development tool over the years. With the advance of modification, aluminum companies electricity costs will decline, integration of relative competitive advantage will decrease, but it's definitely a competitive advantage is still there.

Long term, the policies also cover the capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry, weexpect a long period of 

time maximum capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remainat 46 million tons, while there is still room for growth in demand for electrolytic aluminum. Therefore, in the long term, the aluminum industry chain still has some room to grow, especially in deep processing of aluminum. Look in 2017, alumina and electrolytic aluminum will have a certain amount of new capacity put on the market inthe short term, 

the aluminum industry chain are still under pressure.